[Discussion] Standoff in Velyka Novosilka: Tactical Retreats and Ongoing Struggle

[Uncrowned Guard]

Unyielding Conflict and Strategic Withdrawals in Velyka Novosilka

Reports reveal that Ukrainian forces managed to avert total encirclement in the determined face-off against Russian forces in Velyka Novosilka, Donetsk Oblast. These troops chiefly belong to the 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade, who, amidst escalating engagements, have managed a tactical retreat from certain areas to prevent a total encirclement.

Despite the relentless fighting around the strategic village located approximately 15 kilometers east of neighboring Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the threat looms large as the Russian infantry, greatly outnumbering the Ukrainian troops, edges closer.

Toils and Triumphs on Both Sides of the Frontline

The attrition is palpable on both sides. Equipment and resources are dwindling, and yet the imposing number of Russian infantrymen tips the scales unfavorably for the Ukrainian side. News of this scenario emerges from the brigade's dedicated Telegram channel.

Forecasts suggest an impending control of the village by Russian forces; however, advancing their offensive may be an uphill struggle. The Mokri Yaly River poses a significant logistical challenge for the Russian advance, and their troops find themselves in a vulnerable position referred to as a “fire pocket”. The brigade reports that they face suppression from shellings and drone attacks in any attempt to move.

The river isn't just an impediment for the Russians. The river also affects Ukrainian supply routes, a problem punctuated by Military spokesperson Viktor Trehubov's warning about the potential encirclement of Ukrainian troops. According to Trehubov, Russian forces are leveraging heavy fire to control access routes into the village.

Contesting Control and Claims in Velyka Novosilka

Fuel to this firestorm was added by the recent claim from the Russian Defense Ministry, stating their troops had managed to plant a Russian flag in the heart of Velyka Novosilka, effectively splitting the town in two and dividing Ukrainian forces.

A collaborative effort by Kyiv Independent experts suggests Ukrainian troops may still be holding onto the village's northwestern sectors, and estimate the complete capture will occur within a “few days”. If this scenario plays out, it would mark one of Russia’s first notable victories this year.

Amidst Uncertainties, the Battle Continues

There is a maelstrom of uncertainty currently swirling around the conflict. It's challenging to ascertain how many Ukrainian troops remain trapped within the southern pocket of Velyka Novosilka. Estimates range from two to three battalions which, according to Pasi Paroinen of the Finland-based intelligence organization Black Bird Group, might amount to several hundreds of soldiers.

The struggle is far from over amid high levels of hostility in Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops continue their slow advance, making operational gains in southern Donetsk Oblast, including areas near Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, while also making inroads near Kupiansk and on Russian soil in Kursk Oblast. Regardless of these advances, victory hangs in the balance as both sides fight tooth and nail to assert their control.

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