[Discussion] NATO Braces for Unconventional Russian Threats: Strategy Update in Focus

[Uncrowned Guard]

Potential Unconventional Russian Attack Poses Threat, Signals Top NATO Officer

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) may find itself on the precipice of a significant threat from suspected Russian hybrid aggressions, according to the organization's deputy assistant secretary general. These tactics would have been deemed profoundly intolerable just half a decade earlier, suggesting that NATO is situated in an increasingly precarious "boiling frog" situation.

The NATO official shared with Sky News the serious possibility of unconventional Russian attacks on NATO - actions such as sabotage or arson - which may possibly precipitate "substantial" casualties.

Redefining Grey Zone Warfare Response Strategy

James Appathurai, entrusted with updating NATO's strategy to monitor and prevent 'hybrid warfare', has emphasized the necessity for increased solidarity and clarity among NATO allies and Moscow. The objective is to define which levels of grey zone hostility may demand an allied response, potentially including the utilization of military force.

There has been a discernable surge in more "kinetic" acts, such as the incapacitation of critical undersea cables, building sabotage, and the installment of incendiary devices inside aircraft cargo since Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Ensuring Preparedness for Suspected Russian Hybrid Attacks

Appathurai's concern lies in the possibility of an attack so significant that it could compel NATO to invoke its Article 5 collective response, which interprets an attack on one member as an attack on all. He cited the incident in 2018 when Russia attempted to assassinate former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, using the potent nerve agent Novichok, displaying the potential devastation such unconventional attacks can cause.

The need for effective preparation and response strategy is at the forefront of these concerns in order to minimize the damage in case of a significant attack.

Updating Strategy to Deter Hybrid Warfare

Appathurai and his team are working on refreshening NATO's strategy to understand, deter, and counter hybrid warfare, last reformed in 2015. This new effort involves the documentation of all suspected hybrid attacks, not only from Russia but also from other hostile actors like China, Iran, and North Korea.

Scheduled for approval in 2025, the updated policy aims to equip NATO with the necessary knowledge and techniques to better deter aggression and decide on the most appropriate response. Establishing clarity over 'red lines' for hybrid warfare with Russia is crucial and this endeavor aims at marking out such 'no-go' areas and thresholds.

The notable increase in subtle forms of aggression signifies a shift towards the 'boiling frog' scenario where today's unacceptable becomes tomorrow's norm. Acknowledging the escalated hybrid hostilities as potential triggers for collective response under Article 5, NATO aims to prevent escalation, manage it if it arises, while also striving to return to pre-conflict conditions.

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